Arm Strength is vastly overrated, and scrambling ability, while exciting, is ultimately worse than useless, because History makes it clear that Scramblers, over the years ~ and indeed, the same could be said about the thousands of QuarterBacks who've failed despite a great Arm ~ ultimately fail to focus all their energy on QuarterBacking.
Steve Young is the only Scrambler who ever won a Super Bowl, and he won it, first, because he was on a great team, second, because Barry Switzer can't coach at the NFL level or the CowBoys would've rolled the Miners again in 1994, and third, because he eased up on the scrambling. He became a QuarterBack.
Processing Speed, Diagnostic Acuity, and Accuracy ~ but, above all, Processing Speed ~ is what ultimately wins Championships. It's not as simple as simply counting the Rings, because Fortune and Circumstance play a large part in the Fates of Men. But it is doing the thousands of little things that put one's team in the best position to win, day in and day out ~ and doing them well ~ that is the ultimate measure of any QuarterBack.
The ability to Rapidly Read & React against the toughest, smartest Defenses in the Game...deep in the PlayOffs.
That is what separates Tom Brady from the Pack ~ including Peyton Manning, thank you ~ and always has been.
Many Props and much Gratitude to Draft BreakDown for their outstanding and instructive Game Tapes.
Nature hates a Vacuum, they say.
Geno Smith, by all accounts, is a tremendous young man, an hard worker, and a passionate Student of the Game.
And he has earned spectacular, stunning success at West Virginia, improving each Season, even while transitioning, as he did, last year, to a new System under a new Head Coach. He is as Intelligent as he is physically gifted.
And when things are flowing, his Game is a Wonder and a Joy to behold.
But when things got sketchy, this year, Geno Smith fell apart.
I wouldn't presume to declare it authoritatively ~ all I can do is discern what's going on, as best I can, from the Tape I can find ~ but watching that disaster unfold gave me serious doubts about Geno Smith's ability to Rapidly Read & React at the next level: Staring down Receivers. Twitching around in the Pocket. Collapsing Mechanics.
All of these are, to me, strong indicators that Geno Smith panicked, and did so because the Game was simply happening too quickly for'm to process: He may very well lack the Processing Speed to excel at the next level.
I'm not putting down the guy's Intelligence, you understand: I consider myself a fairly Intelligent guy, but I couldn't even dream of doing what a QuarterBack does: trying to figure out the correct call to make in a NanoSecond, while 21 other guys run around in front of you. Superior Processing Speed is simply an attribute that I lack.
Can hard work improve Processing Speed enough for success at the next level? Actually, I think it can.
And there's no question about Geno Smith's Passion or Work Ethic.
For that reason, I can see Geno Smith ultimately forging a successful career, if he's not thrown into the fire, and is instead given a chance to develop. But considering the near certainty of'm going in the early 1st Round ~ and the recent success of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin ~ it seems very likely that he is going to get thrown right in.
I have to call him a raw Prospect, and I think that he's a very dangerous Pick.
Perceived Market Value
1st Round ~ 01-16
Yankee Market Value